Last year 4590 single family home sales were reported through the Emerald Coast Realtor MLS. In 2005, for the period January 1 to September 30, the average home was listed for $393,281 and buyers were snapping them up for $381,189 on average, with sellers getting 96.93% of their asking price. Spared by hurricanes for several years now, this market is white hot and the real estate remains some of the most sought after in the North Florida. But business here has been markedly slower for many. For the same period January 1 to September 30, 2006, only 3,458 homes sold--and their asking prices averaged only $346,234 with final closing prices at $328,257, a 13.9% decrease of overall sale prices. Sellers ended up with only about 94% of the asking price. 2005 compared to 2006 so far, there were 24% fewer homes sold at the Emerald Coast including Ft. Walton/Destin. On Condos, there are currently 3,793 for sale east of Pensacola and West of Panama City. For the period January 1 to September 30, 2005, 1798 condos were sold having an average list price of $648,345 and a final sale price on those units averaging $628,556. The MEDIAN price was $531,925, while today the median is $575,000. This year, January 1 to September 30, 2006, only 1130 condos closed, down 37%. The average list price also plummeted to $512,406 with sellers again barely getting 95% of the asking price which overal averaged $487,934 a unit. The most shocking statistic I found was comparing the median sales price of an Emerald Coast condo in 2005, $575,000, to the median sales closing price for a condo in 2006, $375,000! There remains a huge chasm in what sellers are thinking their properties are worth and what buyers are actually paying. The decline has been dramatic. Based on the sales of the last two years, given the pace of the last 9 months, there is a 3 year supply of condos on the Emerald Coast...looks like a great time to go shopping!

October 2, 2006

Spared a hurricane so far this year, Pensacola and the surrounding area is the cheapest place to live in the big bend region with the average home listing for $199,182 and selling for $191,939. Sellers are waiting a little longer than in 2005, 101 days, but they are getting 96.36% on average on the asking price. Brokers, buyers and sellers have had two years to level out the values. In the first 9 months of 2006, the average house inched up only $1,504, while the time to sell it increased by 50% from last year. In 2005, 5,894 homes closed in the MLS while for the same period in 2006, only 5008 homes closed, or a decline of 15.1% in the number of homes sold. With just over 5000 homes currently for sale, it is safe for me to say that this market has stabilized, having a one year supply of affordable homes in the area. The Pensacola condo market has been an interesting ride with 1408 units currently for sale. In 2005, from January 1 to September 30, 465 condo units sold on average of 152 days. For the corresponding period January 1 to September 30, 2006, only 324 units have closed representing a sharp decline of 30%. The average list price then was $430,999, with ultimate selling prices at $418,345. The average asking price for a condo in the Pensacola area in September 2006 was $651,521. Weird enough, the average list prices of the condos in 2006 that actually sold was $512,298 and the final selling prices averaged $488,255, an INCREASE of 16.5% in the average selling price. Buyers are buying the quality and condos remain under a half million. With a market time of about a year, current listings (average 194 days on the market so far in 2006) have about 6 more months of moderating and they will probably need to rachet down the price another $50,000 to meet buyers in the middle.

October 2, 2006

This report reflects single home sales, townhome and condo sales in the Greater Tallahassee area comparing July 2005 with 569 closings to July 2006 where closings dropped to 445, or down 22%. A Tallahassee Board Report, which includes lots and land sales, mobile home sales, coastal participant sales and sales in counties around Leon, pegs the drop of the same period at 13%. Next week the Fed will discuss interest rates. Regardless of what happens buyers will expect more value for the money--more land, bigger house, lower interest rate financing, closing costs and other perks--or they are going to wait out the bloodletting. There have been reductions too numerous to track here in Tallahassee and throughout Florida. Many purchases made in Tallahassee arise from buyers in other large Florida markets and because those markets are feeling a more pronounced crunch, the people don't feel as wealthy and are resisting using home equity to invest in real estate abroad. Flips and fast money are exiting the market--Builders are scaling back including St. Joe. A belt tightening correction is already impacting the activity. 67% of the agents in the Board of Realtors have only been a member for the last 5 years or less, and they have never worked in a market turned upside down. As a result, there are going to be some positive changes much the same way a company that fires too many employees profits in the end. Inventory levels have risen exactly like the other markets in Florida as it seems many people want to get off the train for top dollar, but the line is forming--overpriced, unrealistic people need to step to the rear of the line and be prepared to wait for an indefinite period of time.

August 5, 2006

The index of pending home sales, a leading gauge for the housing sector, rose slightly in May, an indication that the market is stabilizing, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. The Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in May, was up 1.3 percent to a level of 113.4 from an index of 111.9 in April, but was 10.1 percent lower than May 2005. The slight change in pending home sales indicates the market is beginning to level out, said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist. This is consistent with our forecast, which is showing a soft landing for the housing sector. We are entering the second phase of the transition period from the housing boom, in which sellers are becoming more realistic about their expectations. Sales are stabilizing and annual home price appreciation is returning to historical norms. The index is derived from pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed; pending sales typically are finalized within a month or two of signing. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined, and was the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales. Regionally, the PHSI in the South was down 1.7 percent in May and was 7.3 percent lower than May 2005. In the Northeast, the index was down 0.6 percent in May and was 7.8 percent below a year ago. The index in the Midwest was up 0.6 percent to 100.9 in May, but was 13.6 percent lower than May 2005. The index in the West rose 9.9 percent to 110.1, but was 12.9 percent below the year earlier period.

July 6, 2006

Ft. Walton/Destin brokers reported to the Emerald Coast MLS: 5,258 Residential units closed (Homes and Condos) by June 2005. But this year-to-date, the sales dropped by nearly 30% with only 3,690 closings. Any way you slice the data, this continues to be a strong contingent of potential buyers and sellers in the market and properties that are worthy of consideration. In June 2005, there were 980 sales compared to only 710 in June of 2006, or a plunge of 27.5% from last year. The market is top heavy with expensive condos and the cranes continue emerge from the white sands and tower over those beautiful emerald waters, making for a very interesting real estate market on the Emerald Coast. Over the last few weeks I have seen hundreds of price reductions in the daily hotsheets and sellers appear to be landing in reality but only an increase in sales will be proff the bottom has been found on the Emerald Coast.

July 6, 2006

I couldn't believe what I read in a realty report last week from the Forgotten Coast which includes St. George Island, Eastpoint, Carrabelle, Lanark, Dog Island and 98 east of Mexico Beach. "A variety of factors converged to create this slow period in local real estate. Growing inventory, rising interest rates, national economic concerns over the huge deficit and a stabilizing stock market followed five years of 30% to 50% appreciation. And then, we had the hurricanes of 2005, starting with Hurricane Dennis which caused a 10-foot storm surge in our area last July. The number of residential transactions is down approximately 68% from this time last year. In 2005, there were 401 residential transactions compared to only 129 this year. Vacant land transactions are even slower, down 86% from last year at this time. In 2005, there were 666 total vacant land transactions compared to only 94 this year.

July 6, 2006

Panama City and northbound to the state line reported 456 sales in June 2005 compared to only 324 in 2006, or a drop of about 29%. But the year to date numbers are promising: In 2005 the Panama City MLS reported 2,192 sales by June 30, 2005, compared to 2,207 in 2006, or an tiny increase in sales this year to date. In my opinion the market in the Panama City area remains very attractive and is on pace to out perform last year.

July 6, 2006

The Pensacola market continues to chug away but year-to-date sales are down by about 12% according to the Pensacola MLS sales of Homes and Condominiums. This report encompasses Greater Pensacola, Pace, Milton, Perdido Key, Navarre and Gulf Breeze. In June 2005, there were 857 sales reported, contrasted by an ominous 666 sales in June 2006, or down by 22%.

July 6, 2006

Despite a slightly slower pace of the last two months in Tallahassee, where this June 2006 posted a 23% decline compared to June 2005, the year-to-date picture is almost exactly the same as reported last year. In 2005, there were 2,545 closings in Greater Tallahassee by June 30. This comparison is only for houses, townhouses and condos. This year to date there were 2,536 transactions, or off by only 9 sales, statistically irrelevant as the figures are only as good as the reporting. Often we see developers home sales are added into the the reports near the end of the year (to prop up appraisals). We constantly go back and re-run the prior months to see underreporting that invariably shows up later. Usually the data is underreported, therefore the market is probably a lot better than it looks but buyers in Tallahassee as well as other parts of the state are expecting sellers to drop the price substantially in light of the evening news and the supposed imminent housing bubble burst-- In Tallahassee, seasoned brokers are quick to adjust to the changing values and the they price them to sell. A recent survey of the 1600 associates who are members of the Tallahassee Board of Realtors,revealed that almost 2/3 of them, or 1000 NEW agents, had only been in the board for the last 5 years, thus pricing and expectations are somewhat skewed to last year and the boom years before. Unfortunately, for the seller that bites on this unprecedented rationale of pricing, is left waiting a while as buyers shop for truly exceptional opportunities.

July 6, 2006

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